Last year was a turbulent time for tourism in the United States. The U.S. tourism industry saw some decline in 2025, primarily in international travel, leading to the loss of billions of dollars in revenue. This trend has been linked to stricter immigration policies, trade tensions, negative sentiment, and higher travel costs.
According to the most recent projections by the U.S. Travel Association (USTA), international tourism volume to the U.S. in 2025 was down by about 6.3% compared to 2024, resulting in a total spending loss of about 3.2%—down roughly $5.7 billion year over year. Because of this loss, the total tourism spending in 2025 saw only a 1.1% increase, with domestic travelers bridging and just slightly surpassing the gap left by international travelers. In total, the industry garnered just $15 billion more in revenue between 2024 and 2025, bumping from $1.335 trillion to $1.35 trillion, respectively. Group travel spending alone saw a 1.8% increase, jumping from a total revenue of $113.2 billion in 2024 to $115.2 billion last year.
Luckily, the USTA travel forecast shows a more positive outlook for this year. In total, the USTA is projecting a 2% increase in the volume of tourists by the end of this year, ultimately leading to a 2.2% increase in all travel spending, expected to total around $1.38 trillion. Group tourism is predicted to increase by about 2.1% compared to last year, representing an additional $2.4 billion in revenue year over year.
Though international relations and political impacts remain uncertain, landmark events like America’s Semiquincentennial, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the 100th anniversary of Route 66 are expected to attract a higher volume of both domestic and international travelers throughout the year.
CHALLENGES REMAIN
The forecasted travel price index is expected to rise 1.3% this year, remaining consistent with the increase that occurred in 2025, reports the USTA. The cost of travel continues to rise because of factors like fuel price increases, increasing labor costs, inflation, higher airport fees, and industry consolidation that have hiked up the costs of airfare, lodging, and overall trip expenses. To accommodate for this, National Tour Association (NTA) President Catherine Prather says most tour operators are planning to increase their prices this year, as well.
“Sixty-nine percent say the increase is moderate (5-10%), and 16% say it’s higher than 10%,” Prather explains. “We asked for the reason, and more than half (54%) say they simply can’t absorb rising vendor costs. Another 38% say the yearly increases are typical.” The statistics cited by Prather come from the NTA 2025 Business Survey conducted toward the end of the year.
“Travelers are looking for value, and that leads tour operators to try and cut costs—without compromising the guest experience,” Prather continues. “They’re doing that by adjusting meals and hotel choices. Operators might also shorten their itineraries or replace paid inclusions with free time, something many travelers are asking for anyway. Not every traveler is looking for lower costs. We asked tour operators which markets—what types of travelers—they’re putting more time and money into, and the market cited most frequently is luxury.”
Some of the other top operational challenges reported by NTA members include declining consumer confidence or discretionary spending, supplier availability, increased competition with online or do-it-yourself trip planning, and staffing shortages or workforce turnover. However, more operators are reporting the integration of tools like AI into their planning. For many, the technology remains experimental, and it is not yet clear how it might impact the industry moving forward.
When asked about the major events coming this year, Prather says she’s only cautiously optimistic. With ongoing sentiment reports remaining negative among international travelers, it can be difficult to predict how things might change. “However, I am hopeful that NTA tour operators, which package such a variety of tours and work with such a wide range of clients, will see an increase in domestic travelers to enjoy these phenomenal national events in 2026,” Prather says. “Starting with our 2024 Travel Exchange, NTA has been helping destinations and suppliers connect with tour operators to build creative itineraries showcasing these celebrations.”
Per the NTA 2025 Business Survey, 61% of NTA tour operators are expecting to see growth in sales this year.
TRENDS TO LOOK OUT FOR
In order to best appeal to travelers this year, it’s vital we understand the trends currently influencing the industry the most. First, it’s important to note that groups are becoming smaller, and trips are featuring more flexible itineraries. Priorities among travelers, as identified by the NTA survey, include immersive or educational experiences, luxury travel, shorter itineraries, and value-driven options.
By a wide margin, Prather says tour operators are seeing the largest demand for heritage and history tours, as indicated by 55% of survey recipients. A smaller percentage (29-31%) cite food and drink, events and festivals, cruises, and active/adventure tourism as the top driving factors behind tourism in the U.S. About 20% of those surveyed also listed national parks, performances, and agriculture.
In terms of who’s traveling, less than half of NTA’s survey respondents said they are seeing any shift in the ages of their clients. About a third report they’re seeing more clients over the age of 60, while only a fifth say they’re seeing more clients in their 40s and 50s.
With this year also marking the NTA’s 75th anniversary, Prather says the association remains a vital tool for industry professionals looking to learn and address the issues most impacting tourism in the year to come. “It will be a year for NTA to continue building on the value of community and relationships, and we’ll also bring members together to address common concerns and challenges,” she says. “Throughout the year—both in-person and online—we will facilitate discussions among and between buyers and sellers and come up with win-win solutions.”
As the group travel industry moves through 2026, the picture that emerges is one of cautious optimism shaped by pragmatism. While lingering economic pressures, pricing challenges, and shifting traveler expectations continue to test tour operators, demand for meaningful, well-curated experiences remains strong—particularly among domestic travelers drawn to heritage, history, and milestone events. With major national celebrations on the horizon and operators adapting through flexible itineraries, value-driven offerings, and strategic use of technology, group travel is positioned not just to recover but to evolve. The year ahead will require careful navigation, but it also offers a clear opportunity for operators who can balance cost, creativity, and connection to meet travelers where they are.
By Madeline Fuerstenberg
Main Image: Guided Tour of Charters of Freedom Rotunda; Credit: National Archives
